Warrior Ancient and Medieval Rules

[Phil Gardocki]

I did not mislead

Odds Regular Vs Regular
assuming 'C' class troops, Charging units die roll includes that condition or
better,
Defending assumes that number and worse. (so +1 -1 assumes the charger rolls
+1 or better, while the defender rolls -1 or worse)

ATT odds DEF odds
+3 0.028 +1 0.861 0.024
+2 0.139 0 0.639 0.089
+1 0.361 -1 0.361 0.130
0 0.639 -2 0.139 0.089
-1 0.861 -3 0.028 0.024
Total .356

So on line one, The attacking player rolls an up 3. Only one combination
2.777%.
But the defender needs only roll +1 or worse, .86%. Odds of occurrence 2.4%
Add this to the odds of occurrence of +2 or better Vs even and worse, +1 to
-1 etc. and the odds of any two combats involving regulars where one specific
side has a +2 differential is 35.6 %



[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

[joncleaves]

In a message dated 6/28/2003 12:09:33 Central Daylight Time, PHGamer@...
writes:

> ATT odds DEF odds
> +3 0.028 +1 0.861 0.024
> +2 0.139 0 0.639 0.089
> +1 0.361 -1 0.361 0.130
> 0 0.639 -2 0.139 0.089
> -1 0.861 -3 0.028 0.024
> Total .356
>

There is not, for example, a .86 chance that someone will roll exactly down
or up one, so I know this isn't right without further looking into it.


[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

[joncleaves]

In a message dated 6/28/2003 14:08:49 Central Daylight Time,
eforbes100@... writes:

> There are 23 combinations that will favor the attacker with a +2
> differential.

Not 'or more', Ed - exactly +2.

I have not found my stats book and do not remember the>
> formula, but this seems to be a much greater outcome than 10%.
>

I will knock it out later.





[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

[joncleaves]

In a message dated 6/28/2003 14:37:34 Central Daylight Time,
eforbes100@... writes:

> Jon,
>
> I do not understand why you think the differential needs to be exactly +2
> for the cav to win.

I don't. The ONLY thing I am still objecting to is the math that says that
exactly +2 for a given player is 35%. Someone, i think Pat, said that and it
isn't true.

Everything else is someone else's argument.


[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

[Ed Forbes]

As the attacker in the stated example is irregular, the number of
combinations listed are under counted.
For reg C / D class pike to lose on a +2 differential in favor of the
irrg B EHC class attacker:
att def
+4 +2, 1, 0, -1, -2, -3
+3 +1, 0, -1, -2, -3
+2 0, -1, -2, -3
+1 -1, -2, -3
+0 -2, -3
-1 ( 0 ) -2, -3
-2 (-1) -3

There are 23 combinations that will favor the attacker with a +2
differential. I have not found my stats book and do not remember the
formula, but this seems to be a much greater outcome than 10%.

Ed

On Sat, 28 Jun 2003 14:35:41 EDT JonCleaves@... writes:
> In a message dated 6/28/2003 12:09:33 Central Daylight Time,
> PHGamer@...
> writes:
>
> > ATT odds DEF odds
> > +3 0.028 +1 0.861 0.024
> > +2 0.139 0 0.639 0.089
> > +1 0.361 -1 0.361 0.130
> > 0 0.639 -2 0.139 0.089
> > -1 0.861 -3 0.028 0.024
> > Total .356
> >
>
> There is not, for example, a .86 chance that someone will roll
> exactly down
> or up one, so I know this isn't right without further looking into
> it.
>

________________________________________________________________
The best thing to hit the internet in years - Juno SpeedBand!
Surf the web up to FIVE TIMES FASTER!
Only $14.95/ month - visit www.juno.com to sign up today!

[Ed Forbes]

I failed to notice that the example was for a 32 man pike unit. There
are only 20 combinations as the cav needs a min of +0 to do the needed
causalities.

Ed

On Sat, 28 Jun 2003 12:02:57 -0700 Ed C Forbes <eforbes100@...>
writes:
> As the attacker in the stated example is irregular, the number of
> combinations listed are under counted.
> For reg C / D class pike to lose on a +2 differential in favor of
> the
> irrg B EHC class attacker:
> att def
> +4 +2, 1, 0, -1, -2, -3
> +3 +1, 0, -1, -2, -3
> +2 0, -1, -2, -3
> +1 -1, -2, -3
> +0 -2, -3
> -1 ( 0 ) -2, -3
> -2 (-1) -3
>
> There are 23 combinations that will favor the attacker with a +2
> differential. I have not found my stats book and do not remember
> the
> formula, but this seems to be a much greater outcome than 10%.
>
> Ed
>

________________________________________________________________
The best thing to hit the internet in years - Juno SpeedBand!
Surf the web up to FIVE TIMES FASTER!
Only $14.95/ month - visit www.juno.com to sign up today!

[Ed Forbes]

Jon,

I do not understand why you think the differential needs to be exactly +2
for the cav to win. A +2 or more differential, and 0 or greater on the
dice ( need to cause 32 casualties) win for the cav.

Ed

On Sat, 28 Jun 2003 15:13:13 EDT JonCleaves@... writes:
> In a message dated 6/28/2003 14:08:49 Central Daylight Time,
> eforbes100@... writes:
>
> > There are 23 combinations that will favor the attacker with a +2
> > differential.
>
> Not 'or more', Ed - exactly +2.
>
> I have not found my stats book and do not remember the>
> > formula, but this seems to be a much greater outcome than 10%.
> >
>
> I will knock it out later.
>
>
>
>
>
> [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
>
>
> ------------------------ Yahoo! Groups Sponsor
>
> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> WarriorRules-unsubscribe@egroups.com
>
>
>
> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to
> http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
>
>
>
>

________________________________________________________________
The best thing to hit the internet in years - Juno SpeedBand!
Surf the web up to FIVE TIMES FASTER!
Only $14.95/ month - visit www.juno.com to sign up today!

[Todd Kaeser]

I know that this has taken an "interesting" turn of
events from where I started this discussion.

All I am trying to say is that (even if it is only a
25% chance of EHC winning vs. pike) EHC too easily
defeats pike considering the historical outcomes of
the Swiss.

I'll leave you to the percentages.

Scott H,

How was the Oman information?


Todd

--- JonCleaves@... wrote:
> In a message dated 6/28/2003 14:37:34 Central
> Daylight Time,
> eforbes100@... writes:
>
> > Jon,
> >
> > I do not understand why you think the differential
> needs to be exactly +2
> > for the cav to win.
>
> I don't. The ONLY thing I am still objecting to is
> the math that says that
> exactly +2 for a given player is 35%. Someone, i
> think Pat, said that and it
> isn't true.
>
> Everything else is someone else's argument.
>
>
> [Non-text portions of this message have been
> removed]
>
>


__________________________________
Do you Yahoo!?
SBC Yahoo! DSL - Now only $29.95 per month!
http://sbc.yahoo.com

[Phil Gardocki]

I agree, EHC does defeat Pike too easily. I was attempting to explain why.
It was why I was not in favor of Lance getting 1.5 ranks.

Phil


[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

[Phil Gardocki]

Odd, the odds are posted and the explanation is lost.
When I wrote

Side A   Side B Combination Sum
> +3  2.8%   +1  86.1%   2.4%

I meant that the odds of Side A rolling a +3 or better is 2.8%, and
the odds of side B rolling +1 or worse is 86%, the combined total is 2.4 percent
of a + 2 differential or better when side A rolls an up three. Since there
is only one +3 combination the odds are the same for both +3 or better, and +3
exactly.
Then you add in the other 4 columns percentages, like Side A rolling a
+2 or better is 13.9%, and the odds of side B rolling 0 or worse is 63.9%,
total 8.9%.

Since anything over a +2 differential wins the round, you count all
the combinations, from a 2 point to 8 point differential.
PS, if you switch your fonts to Courier, the columns will line up.
Phil



[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

[Phil Gardocki]

Irreg C Vs Reg C
odds of +2 differential in favor of Irreg C 53.5%
Irreg B Vs Reg C 56.2%
Irreg B Vs Reg D 63%


[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

[joncleaves]

In a message dated 6/29/2003 04:43:53 Central Daylight Time, PHGamer@...
writes:

> I agree, EHC does defeat Pike too easily.

It is a dream of mine to only play against players who routinely attempt
combats where they need a +2 roll to win. lol Like being the house in
Vegas....





[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

[joncleaves]

In a message dated 6/29/2003 05:34:43 Central Daylight Time, PHGamer@...
writes:

> Irreg C Vs Reg C
> odds of +2 differential in favor of Irreg C 53.5%
> Irreg B Vs Reg C 56.2%
> Irreg B Vs Reg D 63%
>

If you are saying there is a 53.5% chance (with Irreg C vs Reg C) that one
side will get at least a +2 over another, as it appears you are, then I disagree
with your calculations.

The actual number is 27.5% - not what I would call EHC routinely beating
pike.

But you are all welcome to play me believing that there is a 53.5% chance
that in any given Irr C vs Reg C combat you'll get a +2 or better
differential....lol


[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

[Ed Forbes]

We ran the numbers last night and also came up with just under 30% for
Irr B vs reg / irr C to get a +2 differential.

Ed

On Sun, 29 Jun 2003 09:29:58 EDT JonCleaves@... writes:
> In a message dated 6/29/2003 05:34:43 Central Daylight Time,
> PHGamer@...
> writes:
>
> > Irreg C Vs Reg C
> > odds of +2 differential in favor of Irreg C 53.5%
> > Irreg B Vs Reg C 56.2%
> > Irreg B Vs Reg D 63%
> >
>
> If you are saying there is a 53.5% chance (with Irreg C vs Reg C)
> that one
> side will get at least a +2 over another, as it appears you are,
> then I disagree
> with your calculations.
>
> The actual number is 27.5% - not what I would call EHC routinely
> beating
> pike.
>
> But you are all welcome to play me believing that there is a 53.5%
> chance
> that in any given Irr C vs Reg C combat you'll get a +2 or better
> differential....lol
>
>
> [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
>
>
> ------------------------ Yahoo! Groups Sponsor
>
> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> WarriorRules-unsubscribe@egroups.com
>
>
>
> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to
> http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
>
>
>
>

________________________________________________________________
The best thing to hit the internet in years - Juno SpeedBand!
Surf the web up to FIVE TIMES FASTER!
Only $14.95/ month - visit www.juno.com to sign up today!